Market Insights Blog

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Thanks to Charlottesville Tomorrow www.cvilletomorrow.org for this update on the Yancey development plan being discussed. Crozet residents expressed opposition to the proposed Yancey Mills industrial park on Thursday - the story with podcast http://bit.ly/c3N2i5 gives an overview of what is proposed and why folks feel that if approved, the downtown part of Crozet would be negatively impacted.  Crozet, located in the western part of Albemarle County and within 20-30 minutes of Charlottesville, is in one of the counties growth areas.  Downtown Crozet has a quaint feel to it and many believe the proposed development would not only hurt downtown financially, but change what Crozet residents really love about it.  The facelift of downtown along with Old Trail Village www.oldtrailvillage.com  and the opening of Harris Teeter, has brought more amenities allowing Crozet residents to not have to travel into town or across the mountain to Waynesboro to do their shopping

Farmington Country Club announces new special Nonresident membership package for U.Va. Alumni Association Life Members
University of Virginia Alumni Association Life Members http://www.alumni.virginia.edu/ are now eligible for a special Nonresident membership entrance fee for Farmington Country Club.
Farmington, located in Charlottesville, Va., features 40 guest rooms, an exceptional 27-hole golf course, a thriving tennis program with indoor and outdoor courts, fitness center and heated outdoor pool. Members enjoy casual dining in the Farmington Grill, fine dining in the Terrace Room, banquet services, a childcare facility and many social events throughout the year.
Please contact Membership Director Tom Zimmermann at 434-245-0684 for more information on Nonresident membership eligibility criteria as well as the process to become a member.
Let Tom Know you heard about this opportunity on the Roy Wheeler Real Estate Blog.  Click here to find out more about Farmington Country Club. 

Will Goldsmith from Cville wrote an excellent article about the NGIC/DIA move to Northern Albemarle County just south of the Green County line.  Please follow the link to read the entire article.  http://tinyurl.com/yd6n8vf

A number of people have asked me in the last few days whether the Charlottesville real estate market will see recovery during 2010.  There are certainly positive signs like more properties going under contract over the last quarter of 2009 than the previous year and increased showings on listings over these first weeks of the year.  There are even Realtors out there using the words rebound and on the mend as it pertains to home sales.  All that is well and good but my answer is the jury is still out.  I liken the market to what is happening with UVa basketball this year.  Everyone was expecting a lackluster year but they have started 3-0 in the ACC, are 12-4 overall, received enough votes to be ranked 30th in the country and lo and behold have even been added to mid-season picks to make the NCAA tournament.  It is way too early to go there in my opinion and I think it is still way to early to say the local real estate market is recovering just yet as well.  Because the last quarter of 2009 was much improved from the same period in 2008, I imagine the sold data after the 1st quarter of this year will give reason for optimism.  If that optimism motivates people to get off the sidelines and purchase homes then 2010 could mark the end of what has been a four year downturn.  The key number to watch is not pending sales or how many homes actually sold in a given period of time.  Instead, watch the number of how many homes are on the market for sale otherwise known as housing inventory.  We currently have 2877 vs 3086 last year.  About the same number of homes sold in 2009 which means we still have a year's worth of inventory to sell.  The spring market always brings more homes on the market and I think this year will bring more for several reasons. 

1) There are a number of sellers who took their homes off the market in the fall to wait for the spring market when "things will be better"

2)Banks will start releasing Foreclosures into the market

3) Sellers will think that things are better and decide "now is the time to sell".

All this being said, we are certainly much closer to the bottom than we are to what was the Top of the market in 2005 and interest rates still have a 4 in front of the % sign.  The $8,000 or $6,500 Tax Credit depending on which you qualify gives one a sense of urgency since that expires on 4/30 with no real signs that it will be extended.  Sellers seems to be getting more realistic with their pricing.  If enough buyers make the decision that they have waited long enough, 2010 could indeed be the dawn of the housing recovery.  If the inventory does not shrink, then my guess is 2010 will end up looking very much like 2009 with the difference being strong in the 1st half (because the end of 2008 was so bad) and not as strong as the second half of 2009.

I posted an article here the other day saying FHA would be announcing changes.  Here is a blog post outlining those changes. FHA has announced changes to their lending policies.  Thanks to Jose Humaran for the post outlining these changes. http://tinyurl.com/ye7k2rn

Supposedly 1 out of every 5 FHA borrowers are either behind on their payment or facing short sale or foreclosure.  With more and more home buyers looking to finance their purchase with FHA loans, the process and the requirements needed to be tightened to help ensure that FHA will continue to have money to lend to these borrowers.

The 2010 Virginia General Assembly session convened on January 13, and is scheduled to run for two months. This will be a budget session, which happens in even-numbered years, which means that the legislature will spend a lot of time dealing with the state’s financial problems. Here you can learn about and track the fate of the thousands of bills that are proposed, voted on, and ultimately become law. Although not as many as normal, several of these bills will deal with housing which could impact the costs of buying or selling a home.  One of these is how State Transfer taxes are calculated.  The simple explanation of this law allows the state to tax a seller the higher of the home's tax assessment or the sales price.  For years the sales price has almost always been higher than the assessment.  Now that sales prices are going down, many homes are selling under tax assessment. The law as it is written allows the state to now charge more by using the assessment vs the sales price which means the seller is taxed on something that is more than the present value of their home. Keep up to date on this bill and all the others by going to www.richmondsunlight.com

UVa had a pretty special year in 2009.  Click on the following link http://tinyurl.com/ya75ljv for the Alumni Newsletter that features its Top Ten.  Items listed include the effects of a failing economy to the firing of the football and basketball coaches.  It also includes the retiring of its president as well as the retiring of what ironically are called the new dorms. Needless to say the announcement of President Casteen's replacement, Ms. Terry Sullivan, will certainly be on the list for 2010.  It you are a UVa alumni or just interested, you will enjoy the Top 10 picks for what happened at the University of Virginia in 2009.

  In the February issue of Men's Journal magazine, Charlottesville is listed as one of the healthiest cities to live in the country.

 The new accounting used information compiled by Sperling's Ranked and Rated in their Best Places to Live survey to give editors a snapshot of long term health conditions.

The national magazine looked at quality-of-life issues that contribute to a healthier lifestyle, including availability of local farms and products, shorter commute times, sidewalk access, low pollution levels, available green spaces and mild climate and sunny days.

 The other healthiest cities are Iowa City, Iowa; Boulder, Colo.; Logan, Utah; and Northampton, Mass.

If you have followed this blog at all, where to live rankings in almost every national survey has Charlottesville and the Central Virginia area listed near the top.  There are obviously many places in the US that one should consider when considering a move but there is no doubt Charlottesville should be on your list.  There is every type of property to look at when buying a home with the median price being around $225,000.  The market here is still struggling and therefore, prices continue to come down.  The most recent reports show some signs of recovery which says we are now much closer to the bottom than we are to what would have been the top (back in 2005).  The significant inventory, low interest rates, and the tax credit make these next few months a good time to consider purchasing a home. 

www.tinyurl.com/yanavlu Great article on FHA and the current state of our economy from WSJ Online. New FHA Commission, David Stevens, does a fabulous job and is one of the few people who can talk the talk with lenders and walk the walk with Realtors. It is well worth the read!  Just a couple of years ago, FHA and VA financing made up a small percentage of what purchasers used when purchasing a home.  Because this percentage is increasing rapidly (some say it is up to 30-35% of all mortgages), the change in how one qualifies for a loan could have a significant impact on the housing market nationally and here locally.