Click on this link to see what he has to share about jobs, foreclosures, and housing inventory as it relates to bringing our country out of this elongated Recesssion.

http://share.caar.com/Market%20Reports/Barry%20Merchant%2004Feb10%20Presentation.ppt

If you would like to listen to his presentation, click on this CAAR Podcast entry

http://share.caar.com/podcast/GMM_02_04_10.mp3

Here are some highlight of his hour long presentation at the Charlottesville Association of Realtors' Membership Meeting:

Unemployment will become the main reason for foreclosure over toxic loans which has been the main culprit for the last 3 years.  Charlottesville is fortunate however that our joblessness is less than in other parts of the state which should mean that distressed properties will not negatively impact the housing market as much as other parts of the state.  Economic recovery will take longer than the 2001 recession due to the length of this current downturn.

Although Mr. Merchant thinks we are near the bottom of this housing crisis, he does not see an improvement in home prices any time soon.  This is due to tightened credit, the housing inflation that incurred from the last uptick, the before mentioned distressed properties coming on the market, and the $8,000/$6,500 tax credit stimulus ending at the end of April.

He went on to say that the government has to find a balance in these four areas: 1) continued market stimulus while curtailing credit risk, 2) modifying loans so that foreclosures won't occur while dealing with how to do this due to the decrease in the home value, 3)containing strategic defaults (folks who can make their payments but just choose to walk away), 4) enabling private capital markets to buy government back securities without interest rates going up which would allow the feds to get out of subsidizing them.