As posted on the Cville Bubble Blog by Greg Slater of Real Estate III and the President-elect of the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors.

I’ve had a hunch about what was going on in our market, so I’ve been watching the percentage of sales under $300k compared to the prior year. The numbers I have pulled are on the contracts as they are happening, not on closed sales. I like to be a little more current and take a “snapshot” of what is happening now. Check this out:

In Albemarle all categories:
1st QTR 2008 261 Contracts
(33% under $300k)
1st QTR 2009 249 Contracts
(74% under $300k)

In Cville all categories:
1st QTR 2008 145 Contracts
(54% under $300k)
1st QTR 2009 87 Contracts
(71% under $300k)

In ALB/CVILLE/FLU/GRN
1st QTR 2008 554 Contracts
(54% under $300k)
1st QTR 2009 452 Contracts
(71% under $300k)

I’m no rocket scientist but I think this means when we come back and look at the CAAR report again end of 2nd QTR, median prices are going to move some more.

I have no evidence to support the following but my interpretation of these stats is leaning towards:
1. Some of the increase in sales below $300k is reflective of price adjustments occurring now.
2. The first time home buyer is back and finding some value in our market. It probably has something to do with interest rates and tax credits, along with #1.
3. The urban ring (just outside city in albemarle county) is performing the best in comparison to 1st QTR 2008. Only down 5% year over year in # of transactions.

Time will tell. Regardless of your prediction of where this market is going, the first time home buyer finding value in this market and choosing to buy instead of rent is critical to finding stability.

To answer your question as to where the action is, the answer is under $300k. The data is available to get more price range specific, but I wanted to share the results of my latest anaylsis since it seems pertinent to the on going converstation here.