This blog post will preview what you can expect to read when the reports start being published about how the 1st 6 months of 2010 compare to 2009. Initially, one should feel encouraged because the report will show that YTD, 2010 has been a better year in homes sold than the time time period in 2009. Unfortunately, what I have predicted over the last 18 months is becoming a reality. It is correct that things on the surface look like things are headed in the right direction but when one looks at the last couple of months there is cause for concern. Why? Well, 1st, the number of homes on the market remain relatively unchanged (3973 in 6/09 vs 3964 in 6/10) and there is 11 months of inventory currently on the market. You have to go back to June of 2006 to find a market with less than 6 months of inventory (5.18). Secondly, contract written in May and June are 50% and 40% off the April total of 418 buyers having contracts accepted during that month. The number of pending contracts were significantly less (227 vs 286 in May and 256 vs 337 in June)than the same time period in 2009. Should this trend continue, the positive gain in the 1st 6 months of 2010 will be eroded by the less than stellar sales month during the 2nd half. This would result in 2010 ending with numbers very similar to 2009.
Therefore, sellers need to be very aggressive with their pricing and have their homes in the best shape possible. That seems to be happening as the sold data shows homes selling with a list/sold price ratio of 97.39%. What this means for buyers is home prices are dropping but don't count on having an offer 10-20% off asking price being accepted by the seller.
Listen to the radio show Real Estate Matters with Michael Guthrie to hear more on this subject. You can do that by going to http://www.wina.com clicking on podcasts and then scrolling down to the Real Estate Matters podcast list. You can also join the radio show's facebook page by clicking on the link below.
http://www.facebook.com/?tid=10150200136285464&sk=messages#!/pages/Real-Estate-Matters-w-Michael-Guthrie/125141160833940?ref=ts